Tennessee's Census Fact Sheet Page

As information is released from the census bureau, you can get updates about Tennessee's demographics here.

TN Delays Release of Schools' Adequate Yearly Progress Results Again

According to the Tennessean, the Tennessee Department of Education is again delaying the release of its 2009-10 Adequate Yearly Progress results, saying it will be January when schools find out if they met annual testing goals. A harder state curriculum and exams were implemented last school year. That changed how students are defined as having mastered or failed content on exams. New goals were also set that schools had to meet in reading and math. The state has requested two waivers from the U.S. Department of Education regarding this year's scores, contributing to the delay.

For the full article from the Tennessean, click here.

New House Democratic Leadership

The House Democratic Caucus met this morning and selected its leadership for the upcoming General Assembly. Rep. Craig Fitzhugh was selected as minority leader, replacing Rep. Gary Odom. Rep. Mike Turner retained his position as caucus chair. Rep. Sherrie Jones is Democratic Whip. Rep. Joe Towns is assistant leader.

The Senate Democratic Caucus meets this afternoon. Few, if any, changes are expected in the Democratic leadership in the Senate.

Fiscal Review Meeting - State Revenue Forecast

Director Jim White gave an overview of the economy and the state budget. Currently TN has the 18th highest unemployment rate in the nation. Housing starts remain at historic lows (lowest in 40 years). While risk has lessened somewhat, deflation is still a potential problem.

Historically, per capita sales tax revenues have grown, but if you adjust for inflation and rate increases, we are roughly where we were 20 years ago. We should not expect dramatic growth in sales tax collections. Sales tax collections peaked in 2008 at $6.8 billion with the state substantially below that level today. At the same time, we've seen a 20% reduction in franchise and excise tax collections. These two tax bases make up about 70% of the state's budget.

Over 2 years, total state tax collections have been reduced by 10%, far below peak collections in 2008. How long will it take to get back to pre-recession levels? With 4% growth it would be fiscal year 2013. While we are currently over budget projections, it will be difficult to maintain that level of growth over an extended period.

Many cuts in the state budget are not currently being experienced because of federal stimulus funds in the budget. But many cuts have been made. Several departments have seen cumulative cuts of 25%. To fully restore all the reductions that have been made over the last 3 years, it would take 30% revenue growth.

If we see a period of deflation, the state revenue forecast becomes substantially more negative. The consensus at the moment is that we will not enter deflation, but Director White wanted the committee to be aware of the possibility. He indicated that some aspects of the current US economy mirror the conditions in Japan shortly before that country entered an extended period of deflation.

Funding Board Meeting

The state funding board held a joint meeting with the business tax study committee today. Lee Jones of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta reported on economic indicators. The economy is expected to strenghthen in the coming year, but growth will likely not be robust enough to significantly reduce unemployment. Even the most optimistic projections expect unemployment to remain above 8.5% through the end of 2011. The good news is that the possibility of a double dip recession appears much less likely. Retail sales have bounced back surprisingly strong since the end of the recession. The most recent results indicate that Tennessee is in recovery and has moved ahead of other southeastern states and the U.S. in personal income growth. Business investment remains robust. Inflation remains at very low levels, but the risk of deflation has declined.

New Leadership Structure in the House of Representatives

Reports are coming out about staff decisions made by the presumptive Speaker, Rep. Beth Harwell. The word is that she is splitting the positions of chief of staff and house clerk. Chief of staff will be Gregory Gleaves (current executive director of TN Rep. Party). The new House clerk, replacing long time clerk Burney Durham will be former Rep. Joe McCord.

In the House Republican Caucus meeting today:
Judd Matheny was elected as nominee for Speaker Pro Tem
Gerald McCormick was elected Majority Leader
Debra Maggart was elected Caucus Chair
Kevin Brooks was elected as assistant leader.
Barrett Rich was elected GOP whip
Ryan Haynes was elected caucus vice chair
Vince Dean was elected floor leader

Still to come in January will be the important announcements of committee appointments and chairs.

Bill Gibbons Named Commissioner of Safety and Homeland Security

Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons was named today as Commissioner of Safety and head of Homeland Security in the Haslam Administration. Gibbons served as a Shelby County Commissioner before being appointed DA. He was a candidate in the Republican Primary for Governor earlier this year before dropping out of a crowded field , citing an inability to raise sufficient funds.